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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward formula. It commonly functions as a type of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who engineered the most dramatic resurgence is handed the award. In reality, it fuels an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior leadership or just the most shocking shock.

However the latest field is fundamentally unique. The pool of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division champions falling away and recent strugglers ascending in unison. Under an ordinary year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a chaotic and thrilling season, he's facing multiple other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the projected ballot should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to showcase his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become more confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the system instead of freelancing. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that frees wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been able to conjure magic from broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually every decision – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of pressure he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive wizard but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

In a typical year, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. But the current is not a typical year!

Where his case runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. But Johnson falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has nailed the leadership stuff, which was not a certainty after his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching blend of new ideas and experience, Coen trusted newbies. From the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the season would go off the track. A midseason collapse caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still